Differential pathogenicity and lethality of bubonic plague (1720–1945) by sex, age and place

COVID-19 brought back to the attention of the scientific community that males are more susceptible to infectious diseases. What is clear for other infections-that sex and gender differences influence both risk of infection and mortality-is not yet fully elucidated for plague, particularly bubonic plague, although this knowledge can help find specific defences against a disease for which a vaccine is not yet available. To address this question, we analysed data on plague from hospitals in different parts of the world since the early eighteenth century, which provide demographic information on individual patients, diagnosis and course of the disease in the pre-antibiotic era. Assuming that the two sexes were equally represented, we observe a worldwide prevalence of male cases hospitalized at any age, a result which seems better explained by gender-biased (thus cultural) behaviours than biological sex-related factors. Conversely, case fatality rates differ among countries and geographic macro-areas, while globally, lethality appears slightly prevalent in young females and older adults (regardless of sex). Logistic regression models confirm that the main risk factor for bubonic plague death was the geographical location of the cases and being older than 50 years, whereas sex only showcased a slight trend.