Antipsychotic drugs in first-episode psychosis: A target trial emulation in the FEP-CAUSAL Collaboration

Good adherence to antipsychotic therapy helps prevent relapses in First Episode Psychosis (FEP). We used data from the FEP-CAUSAL Collaboration, an international consortium of observational cohorts to emulate a target trial comparing antipsychotics with treatment discontinuation as the primary outcome. Other outcomes included all-cause hospitalization. We benchmarked our results to estimates from EUFEST, a randomized trial conducted in the 2000s. We included 1097 patients with a psychotic disorder and less than 2 years since psychosis onset. Inverse probability weighting was used to control for confounding. The estimated 12-month risks of discontinuation for aripiprazole, first-generation agents, olanzapine, paliperidone, quetiapine, and risperidone (95% CI) were: 61.5% (52.5-70.6), 73.5% (60.5-84.9), 76.8% (67.2-85.3), 58.4% (40.4-77.4), 76.5% (62.1-88.5), and 74.4% (67.0-81.2) respectively. Compared with aripiprazole, the 12-month risk differences (95% CI) were -15.3% (-30.0, 0.0) for olanzapine, -12.8% (-25.7, -1.0) for risperidone, and 3.0% (-21.5, 30.8) for paliperidone. The 12-month risks of hospitalization were similar between agents. Our estimates support use of aripiprazole and paliperidone as first-line therapies for FEP. Benchmarking yielded similar results for discontinuation and absolute risks of hospitalization as in the original trial, suggesting that data from the FEP-CAUSAL Collaboration data sufficed to approximately remove confounding for these clinical questions.