A Cost Estimation Approach for Aircraft Design Enhancement

This paper presents a novel reliability-based parametric methodology for quantifying the reliability of cost estimates for new composite aircraft components. In recent years, the aircraft production sector has increased its attention on optimizing their composite manufacturing operations. It has become clear that a key factor in the success of these operations is the consideration that not only technical factors, but also economic ones as well are relevant. Composite manufacturing variability is greatly influenced by many of these factors, and since manufacturing with composites is significantly more difficult than with more traditional materials, there are many sources of uncertainty that could influence the reliability of manufacturing cost estimates for new composite aircraft components. Therefore, it is worth considering these sources of uncertainty during the cost estimation process and to quantify the reliability of the cost estimates. To demonstrate the proposed methodology, a numerical example featuring a real-life composite aircraft component from a Boeing 787, with real-life data, is presented. Results show that the proposed methodology can quantify the uncertainty associated with cost estimates for new composite aircraft components in an effective manner, thereby supporting engineers in optimising the cost of their designs, helping them avoid errors in budget definition, and enabling them to allocate resources more efficiently.