The paper focuses on the nexus between climate change and armed conflicts with an empirical analysis based on a panel of 2653 georeferenced cells for the African continent between 1990 and 2016. Our econometric approach addresses unobservable heterogeneity in predicting the probability of violent events and the persistency of conflicting behaviour over time. The proposed strategy also accounts for both changes in climatic conditions and spatial dynamics. The two main findings carry policy-relevant implications. First, changes in climatic conditions influence the probability of conflicts over large spatial ranges, thus suggesting that the design of adaptation policies to reduce climate vulnerability should account for multiple spatial interrelations. Second, the persistency of violence calls for planning adaptation strategies for climate resilience jointly designed with measures in support of peacekeeping.
Climate change and armed conflicts in Africa: temporal persistence, non-linear climate impact and geographical spillovers
Cappelli, FedericaPrimo
;Consoli, Davide;Costantini, Valeria
Penultimo
;
2023
Abstract
The paper focuses on the nexus between climate change and armed conflicts with an empirical analysis based on a panel of 2653 georeferenced cells for the African continent between 1990 and 2016. Our econometric approach addresses unobservable heterogeneity in predicting the probability of violent events and the persistency of conflicting behaviour over time. The proposed strategy also accounts for both changes in climatic conditions and spatial dynamics. The two main findings carry policy-relevant implications. First, changes in climatic conditions influence the probability of conflicts over large spatial ranges, thus suggesting that the design of adaptation policies to reduce climate vulnerability should account for multiple spatial interrelations. Second, the persistency of violence calls for planning adaptation strategies for climate resilience jointly designed with measures in support of peacekeeping.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
---|---|---|---|
Cappellietal2022_ECOPOL.pdf
accesso aperto
Tipologia:
Altro materiale allegato
Licenza:
Creative commons
Dimensione
1.55 MB
Formato
Adobe PDF
|
1.55 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizza/Apri |
s40888-022-00271-x.pdf
accesso aperto
Descrizione: versione editoriale
Tipologia:
Full text (versione editoriale)
Licenza:
Creative commons
Dimensione
1.54 MB
Formato
Adobe PDF
|
1.54 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizza/Apri |
I documenti in SFERA sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.