Refugial peatlands in the Northern Apennines. Vegetation-environment relationships and future perspectives

Aims: We aimed to detect the environmental drivers conditioning plant diversity and to predict how modifications in habitat conditions and ongoing global warming could lead to vegetation changes or biodiversity losses in a region especially rich in peatlands despite its relatively low latitude. Study area: The study area was located in the Northern Apennines, Northern Italy (about 44 degrees 45' N; 10 degrees 20' E). The vegetation study was carried out at 12 peatland sites where 206 plots were set up. Species composition in the 206 plots were recorded in the field and classified with cluster analysis. Data on hydrology, water chemistry and peat chemistry were collected at a subset of 127 plots and statistically analysed by a multivariate ordination method. Species richness and evenness were calculated for all plots. Relationships between species composition and environmental variables were analysed by stepwise multiple regression. Results: The cluster analysis defined 17 vegetation units. Water table depth represented the major environmental factors accounting for vegetation patterns, with the vegetation units being grouped in four main blocks based on vegetation physiognomy and species composition: Sphagnum hummocks, Sphagnum lawns, fens and pools. Water chemistry and peat chemistry both presented moderate variations among the vegetation units with mean water pH ranging from 4.9 to 6.3. Concentrations of major cations in the pore water showed that all of the habitats investigated were influenced by telluric water, with no evidence of ombrotrophic conditions. Species richness and evenness both presented poor relations with the environment while responses of individual species to environmental factors were more informative on vegetation changes triggered by climate change. Conclusions: Prolonged drought events associated with high temperature in summer months are expected to exert a strong impact on peatland vegetation. The main effect of climate change on the vegetation of the peatlands investigated consists in the spreading of vascular plants at the expense of Sphagnum mosses.