Clinical Predictive Factors of Response to Treatment in Patients Undergoing Conservative Management of Atypical Endometrial Hyperplasia and Early Endometrial Cancer

Purpose: Predictive markers of response to conservative treatment of atypical endometrial hyperplasia (AEH) or early endometrial cancer (EEC) are still lacking. We aimed to assess clinical predictive factors of response to conservative treatment of AEH and EEC. Methods: All patients with AEH or EEC conservatively treated from January 2007 to June 2018 were retrospectively assessed. The associations between 23 clinical factors and outcomes of response to treatment were assessed with standard univariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression (significant p-value <0.05). The primary outcome was the association of each clinical factor with treatment failure (i.e., no regression or relapse of the disease). Secondary outcomes were the associations of each clinical factor with: (1) no regression, (2) relapse, or (3) pregnancy after treatment. Results: Forty-three women, 37 (86%) with AEH and 6 (14%) with EEC were included. At univariate analyses, treatment failure was associated with longer menstrual cycle (p = 0.002), infrequent menstrual bleeding (p = 0.04), and a diagnosis of EEC instead of AEH (p = 0.008). Among the secondary outcomes, no regression was associated with infrequent menstrual bleeding (p = 0.04), and a diagnosis of EEC instead of AEH (p < 0.001), while relapse was associated with longer menstrual cycles (p = 0.007). At multivariate analyses, odds ratio for treatment failure was 4.54 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.24–84.4) for a diagnosis of EEC instead of AEH (p = 0.3), and 2.10 (95% CI, 1.03–4.29) for longer menstrual cycles (p = 0.042), while infrequent menstrual bleeding perfectly predicted treatment failure. Conclusions: Longer menstrual cycles and infrequent menstrual bleeding appear as independent predictive factors for conservative treatment failure in AEH and EEC. Further and larger studies are necessary to confirm these findings.