Climate changes are supposed to greatly affect soil water content (SWC) and soil temperature, which in turn drive the recharge toward the aquifers. The aim of this study is to estimate future trends of recharge in a silty loamy agricultural soil located in the Po river lowland, using a variably saturated finite elements model. The model was calibrated and validated using SWC and matric potential at different depths from 2008 to 2012. The validated model ran using the predicted evapotranspiration and precipitation for the year 2050 following the IPCC A1B scenario. The forecasted input data derive from the downscaled model PROTHEUS that use ECHAM5/MPI-OM as global driver and using a basin Multi Global Model Ensemble (MGME) prediction for the Mediterranean area. The estimated changes in recharge are not significant for this area, since the forecasted input data do not change dramatically from the actual dataset. Although, linking the evapotranspiration only to the projected temperature increase leaded to a reduced recharge of approximately 30%. The conjunctive use of small scale validated models with downscaled results from global drivers could be an effective tool to manage the climate changes at the local scale.
Predicting Aquifer Recharge Trends From Local Scale Numerical Scenarios
COLOMBANI, Nicolo';MASTROCICCO, Micol;VINCENZI, Fabio;CASTALDELLI, Giuseppe
2014
Abstract
Climate changes are supposed to greatly affect soil water content (SWC) and soil temperature, which in turn drive the recharge toward the aquifers. The aim of this study is to estimate future trends of recharge in a silty loamy agricultural soil located in the Po river lowland, using a variably saturated finite elements model. The model was calibrated and validated using SWC and matric potential at different depths from 2008 to 2012. The validated model ran using the predicted evapotranspiration and precipitation for the year 2050 following the IPCC A1B scenario. The forecasted input data derive from the downscaled model PROTHEUS that use ECHAM5/MPI-OM as global driver and using a basin Multi Global Model Ensemble (MGME) prediction for the Mediterranean area. The estimated changes in recharge are not significant for this area, since the forecasted input data do not change dramatically from the actual dataset. Although, linking the evapotranspiration only to the projected temperature increase leaded to a reduced recharge of approximately 30%. The conjunctive use of small scale validated models with downscaled results from global drivers could be an effective tool to manage the climate changes at the local scale.I documenti in SFERA sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
