The growing need to increase the competitiveness of industrial systems continuously requires a reduction of maintenance costs, without compromising safe plant operation. Therefore, forecasting the future behavior of a system allows planning maintenance actions and saving costs, because unexpected stops can be avoided. In this paper, four different methodologies are applied to predict gas turbine behavior over time: Linear and Non Linear Regression, One Parameter Double Exponential Smoothing, Baesyan Forecasting Method and Kalman Filter. The four methodologies are used to provide a prediction of the time when a performance limit will be exceeded in the future, as a function of the current trend of the considered parameter. The application considers different scenarios which may be representative of the trend over time of some significant parameters for gas turbines. Moreover, the Baesyan Forecasting Method, which allows the detection of discontinuities in time series, is also tested for predicting system behavior after two consecutive trends. The results presented in this paper aim to select the most suitable methodology that allows both trending and forecasting as a function of data trend over time, in order to predict time evolution of gas turbine characteristic parameters and to provide an estimate of the occurrence of a failure. Copyright © 2011 by ASME.
Application of forecasting methodologies to predict gas turbine behavior over time
VENTURINI, Mauro
2011
Abstract
The growing need to increase the competitiveness of industrial systems continuously requires a reduction of maintenance costs, without compromising safe plant operation. Therefore, forecasting the future behavior of a system allows planning maintenance actions and saving costs, because unexpected stops can be avoided. In this paper, four different methodologies are applied to predict gas turbine behavior over time: Linear and Non Linear Regression, One Parameter Double Exponential Smoothing, Baesyan Forecasting Method and Kalman Filter. The four methodologies are used to provide a prediction of the time when a performance limit will be exceeded in the future, as a function of the current trend of the considered parameter. The application considers different scenarios which may be representative of the trend over time of some significant parameters for gas turbines. Moreover, the Baesyan Forecasting Method, which allows the detection of discontinuities in time series, is also tested for predicting system behavior after two consecutive trends. The results presented in this paper aim to select the most suitable methodology that allows both trending and forecasting as a function of data trend over time, in order to predict time evolution of gas turbine characteristic parameters and to provide an estimate of the occurrence of a failure. Copyright © 2011 by ASME.I documenti in SFERA sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
