Development of a statistical methodology for gas turbine prognostics

In the field of system engineering, the main goal is the prediction of the future health condition of a system and of its components, starting from field measurements taken in the past. This is aimed to optimize both production and maintenance, from both a technical and an economical point of view. In this context, this paper presents a methodology, based on the Monte Carlo statistical method, which aims to determine the future operating state of a gas turbine. The methodology allows the system future availability to be estimated, to support a prognostic process based on past historical data trends. One of the most innovative features is that the prognostic methodology can be applied to both global and local performance parameters, as for instance machine specific fuel consumption and local temperatures. First, the theoretical background for developing the prognostic methodology is outlined. Then, the procedure for implementing the methodology is developed and a simulation model is set up. Finally, different degradation-over-time scenarios for a gas turbine are simulated and a sensitivity analysis on methodology response is carried out, to assess the capability and the reliability of the prognostic methodology. The methodology proves robust and reliable, with a prediction error lower than 2 %, for the availability associated with the next future data trend. Copyright © 2011 by ASME.